Essay writing thesis statement: October 2019

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Does the threat of prison serve as a deterrent Discuss with reference Essay

Does the threat of prison serve as a deterrent Discuss with reference to the work of at least two academic theorists - Essay Example Across the societies and in all nations, a prison system has been set and mandated with primary responsibility and authority of punishing these criminal offenders who have been found guilty by court. To deter is to use punishment as way of averting criminal acts. A prison is a setting where criminal offenders are contained legally as way of punishment for the crimes they have committed (Perrier and Pink, 2003:58). The question that, therefore, rises is if prisons actually serve to deter crime from happening. This essay will discuss the extent and ways in which prisons function in their attempt to reduce and deter crime and demonstrate if actually this objective is achieved. This will be based and compared to the theoretical perspectives of prison and role in crime deterrence. It is of great concern to anyone who has interest in crime prevention to critically analyse the role of prison system in curbing crime through preventing a reoccurrence and initiation of a new one. There has been a massive transformation in the recent time in the prison departments with different people expressing divergent opinions concerning the main role of a prison. Some people would argue that the prison should be a rehabilitation centre with structures and facilities that are suppose to empower the offenders and show them a new perspective in life. Other people from a different school of thought would say that availing positive and empowerment tools to offenders would be reinforcing criminal acts and, therefore, no one would learn from the mistakes. Punishment is the best way to unlearn behaviour rather that exposing a criminal to positive and enabling conditions. While it appears to be a motivation and reinforcement of a criminal behaviour, a holistic rehabilitative measure have been put in most prisons to make sure that prisoners come out of their dens afresh with clearly set goals and ambition so as to make a change in the society. This has

Monday, October 28, 2019

The National Literacy Strategy Essay Example for Free

The National Literacy Strategy Essay The following essay will consider some of the components of the literacy hour and discuss the strategies teachers use to utilise these methods within the classroom. Literacy is at the heart of the drive to raise standards in schools (DfES, 2001, pg2) The above quote is taken from the National Literacy Strategy framework for teaching which, since 1998 has highlighted the importance of teaching English to all schoolchildren. The framework was introduced to couple the National Curriculum document and builds on theories and ideas from previous reports (such as the Kingman report: 1988 and the Cox report: 1989) and documentation which since 1975 have highlighted the importance of having certain attainment targets that children should be achieving. These targets are the acquisition of good speaking, listening, reading, writing and spelling skills, and the Literacy strategy influences teachers in planning and delivering at least an hour long literacy lesson each day, focusing on one or more of these targets. According to the National Literacy document children use a range of strategies, or searchlights, when reading to help them make sense of text. These searchlights fall into four categories. These are; phonic knowledge, grammatical knowledge, knowledge of context/word recognition and graphic knowledge (DfES: 2001. p 4) When teaching reading teachers will break their lesson down into shared (whole class) and guided (independent with support from teacher) sessions. When delivering shared and guided reading sessions teachers can model to children how to draw upon all four of the searchlights to aid them in their reading. Shared reading normally focuses on word and text level work and so teachers will plan for a whole class read in which specific features such as spelling patterns, alliteration, punctuation or the intention of the piece that is being read will be highlighted for to the class. (Ibid). Practitioners are also able to model how clues contained within the piece (such as pictures, exclamation or speech marks) can be used to predict how the story is to be read. However, during guided or independent reading children have to use what knowledge they have of the English language to read on their own. It is for this reason that practitioners will plan to teach the use of phonics to children from an early age. As young children find it hard to discriminate the sounds of letters automatically the teaching of phonics or letter sounds is used by teachers to help children to recognise the correct spelling of a word (DfES 2001). The most effective practitioners will teach children how to identify the phonemes in spoken language and then build an understanding of how each phoneme is correctly spelt. When children have acquired a sound knowledge of these phonemes, practitioners will educate them in two new skills known as segmentation and blending.

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Implications of change management on organizational behavior

Implications of change management on organizational behavior Change is hard because people overestimate the value of what they have-and underestimate the value of what they may gain by giving that up. (James et al 1994) Change Management is the process, tools and techniques to manage the people-side of change to achieve the required business outcome (Prosci 2009). This report outlines a massive Change Management exercise rolled out at Infosys Technologies Ltd (ITL), India. ITL is a NASDAQ listed fortune 500, Indian IT company with 63 offices across the globe with an employee base of 1, 22,468 (Infosys 2010). Pre-recession scenario in Indian IT companies witnessed employee promotions in every 2-3 years. As a result, a person works on technology for 4-5 years and then moves up to management. This has resulted in clients complaining about the lack of technically strong people. To urgency to meet the client expectations triggered the launch of iRACE (Infosys Role and Career Enhancement) change management exercise in October 2009 amidst peak recession climate (Huczynski et al 2010 pp. 563). iRACE, implemented by global HR services firm Mercer Consulting, was a career transformation exercise with 24 career streams to ensure the growth will no longer be defined by movement up due to frequent promotions. This review sights the analysis of the nature of iRACE transformation using Scale Of Change and Change Leadership Style plot (Stace and Dunphy, 2001), change agents approach, communication strategy and implications of iRACE change and compares it with theory. Also suggestions that could have led to effective change management at Infosys with minimum resistance and impact on the employees have been proposed. Change characteristics Scale, Leadership style Context Analysis: With approx. 1, 00,000 employees getting affected by the iRACE change rollout the analysis of the scale, leadership style context of the change becomes very significant. Stance and Dunphy (2001) defined that the change of scale using four characteristics: fine Tuning, incremental adjustment, modular transformation and corporate transformation. Stance and Dunphy (2001) also defined the categories of change leadership style: collaborative, consultative, directive and coercive. Plotting Scale Of Change against Change Leadership Style and Dunphy Stace contingency approach to change implementation helps to analyze the scale of change, leadership style and evaluate the approach of iRACE change whether it fits in the right context or not . (Huczynski et al 2010 pp. 574). Fig1 : Scale of change and leadership style Scale of change Style of change leadership Fine Tuning Incremental Adjustment Modular Transformation Corporate Transformation Collaborative Type 1 Type 2 Consultative Participative evolution Charismatic transformation Directive Type 3 Type 4 iRACE Change was a necessity for survival. Had to rely on external support for doing the change. Coercive Forced evolution Dictatorial transformation Source: Adopted from (Huczynski et al 2010 pp. 574). This matrix analysis categorizes iRACE into a Corporate Change with Coercive leadership style and fits iRACE into a Dictatorial corporate transformation context. Role and approach of Change Agents in fostering the change: Effective management of change is necessary to sustain the competition. Balogun and Hope Hailey (2004) report a failure rate of around 70% of all change programmes initiated. The facts thus suggest that there is no well-defined framework across domains that outlines the management and implementation of change. What is available is a wide range of confusing theories and approaches (Burnes, 2004). Guimaraes and Armstrong (1998) support this by saying that mostly superficial analyses have been published in this basic area. With the lack of a fundamental framework of change, the role of change agents becomes exceedingly crucial. A change agent is defined as a manager who seeks to reconfigure an organizations roles, responsibilities, structures, outputs, processes, systems, technology or other resources in the light of improving organizational effectiveness (Buchanan and Badham 1999). Buchanan and Boddy (1992) list competencies of effective change agents: clarity of specifying goals, team building activities, communication skills, negotiation skills and influencing skills to gain commitment to goals. Gronn (2002) and Bennett et al (2003) sight that distribution of change agency means that more people need to have the skills required. Also contrary to Gronn (2002) and Bennett et all (2003) sighting, iRACE change agency was not distributed as major part of the change was formulated by Mercer Consulting (external change agent) and a committee of only 65 top level managers (internal change agents) Fig2 : iRACE Change Management and Communication (Phases and Timelines) Source: Self-understanding of knowledge of iRACE gained at Infosys (2009) Kanter (1989) speaks of superhuman change agents, with wide-ranging expertise, as a business athlete. Although the change agents seemed to be effective in Phase I but contrary to Kanter (1989) argument, change agents in Phase II couldnt perform effective organizational diagnosis and Phase III IV were ineffective because of the lack of expertise the change agents took much longer time than expected in dealing with the design complexities. This resulted in excessive delay in (Phase V) and thus delayed communication led to mismatch with the stakeholders expectations of the change resulting in resentment of the stakeholders (Kubler Ross, 1969). Importance of Communication- An underestimated picture An effective communication smoothens the delivery of the change. Bovee and Thill (2000, p.4) believe that effective communication only takes place when participants achieve a shared understanding, stimulate others to take actions and encourage people to think in new ways. Opposite to Bovee and Thills (2000) saying iRACE change communication lacked shared understanding at the managerial level. Gibb (1961) argues the importance of Communication Climate. Contrary to Gibb (1961) argument the climate was not favorable for iRace change with global recession cloud, layoffs and other stringent policy amendments (e.g. 9.15 work hour policy, ISTAFF policy) and communications taking place simultaneously. The communication process also lacked effective communication strategy. The communication was merely based on tactical analysis. Even though communication involved just tactical analysis, It failed to cater to all the areas of tactical analysis i.e. it lacked right channels for communication flow, timeliness and efficient monitoring. Communication was made highly complex. The delay in design phase worsened the communication by percolating the delay in delivery phase and as a result of shrinked timelines, communication process lacked two-way communication, dialogue and feedback, review exercise for the communication delivered and last but not the least the employee discomfort went un heard during the entire communication phase (Huczynski et al 2010 pp. 226-27). Fall out of the Change Impact on Organizational Behavior : Role Restructuring Demotions: Over 4,500 people got demoted because of the iRACE implementation. This created a furor. Loss of Loyalty of Employees: The employees criticized iRACE and the HR leadership through use of social media to express their resentment and the fading out loyalty. Unprecedented Attrition- A key failure indicator: In the initial half of 2010- Infosys lost 4000 employees in the month of February 2010 alone accounting for 3% of its total strength (Dexter 2010). Over 10,000 that have quit since October 2009, 4,000 left in February10 alone. About 1,000 e-separations were filed on the intranet on a single day: December 31st (Current IT Market 2010). Fig3 : Attrition Rate at Infosys Pre and Post iRACE change implementation Source: (Infosys Reports Filings 2010) Pre iRACE Implementation- Q3-09 to Q2-10 relate to Peak recession scenario iRACE design phase. iRACE Implementation- Q4-10 iRACE Implementation phase Post iRACE Implementation- Q1-11 to Q2-11- iRACE fall out phase. Refurbishing process- The Resolution : Unitarist frame of reference views organization as fundamentally harmonious, co-operative structures, consisting of committed, loyal, worker-management teams that promote harmony of purpose (Huczynski et al 2010 pp. 662-63). Ackroyd et al (1999) and Johnston (2000) identified the key features of unitarist frame of reference which use communication failures between management and employees to explain the workplace conflict. To overcome the communication failures continuous impacts, management must re-structure the communication process so that the objective of the change is communicated to the employees clearly. Firstly, using Gronn (2002) and Bennett et al (2003) theory of distribution of change agency management must involve more skilled persons in the communication thus distribute the change agency. Secondly, iRACE change agents should restructure the communication process by using a Strategic Planning- Iceberg which outlines the strategic approach to communicating change based o n four levels of planning outlined below (Clampitt et all N.D.). Fig3 : Strategic Planning Iceberg Source: (Clampitt et all N.D.) The Ice Berg strategic planning will benefit iRACE change agents in focusing on all four strategic approaches contextual analysis (anticipate possible resistance points), audience analysis (isolate key groups of employees that may be directly or indirectly impacted by the change) and strategic design (development of a sustainable strategy based on the outcomes of contextual and audience analysis) unlike the previous approach which focused on Tactics (how to s?) only. As the market is stabilizing after the recession, substantial rewards (salary hikes, exceptional performance promotions, role progressions if not role change) can be given to the employees which will be beneficial for the employees and the organization as a whole. Conclusion: The Scale Of Change against Change Leadership Style and Dunphy Stace contingency approach helped in accessing the characteristics of the change. The analysis also uses Gronn (2002) and Bennett et al (2003) change agency distribution theory to analyze the importance of distribution of the change agency viz a viz emphasizes on competencies of effective change agents. These strategies, if used, strategically, would have led to the involvement of more competent people into the change process as change agents. Diversification of change agency if ignored like in case of ITL leads to inefficient change strategy. The unitarist frame of reference helped to identify the causes of conflict in ITL. This analysis further highlights the (Clampitt et all N.D.) Ice Berg strategic planning approach to understand the significance of strategic communication of the change and communication climate Gibb (1961) and its benefits in communicating the objective of the change. Value of the strategic communic ation in fostering the change, if undermined, wreaks serious threats to the organizational behavior. The solutions suggested may involve extra manpower, extra effort and time in restructuring the communication process and communicating the essence of change. Given solution may also incur cost to give wage hikes initially but are competent enough to solve the problem and lead to a smoothened and sustainable organization change viz a viz improvement in organization behavior. References Ackroyd, S. and Thompson, P. (1999) Organizational Misbehavior. London: Sage Publications. Balogun, J. and Hope Hailey, V. (2004) Exploring Strategic Change, 2nd edition (London: Prentice Hall). Bennett, N., Wise, C. and Woods, P. (2003) Distributed Leadership. Nottingham: National College for School Leadership. Bovee, C.L. and Thill, J.V. (2000), Business Communication Today, 6th edition., Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ. Buchanan, D.A. and Badham, R. (1999), Politics and organizational change: the lived experience, Human Relations, Vol. 52 No. 5, pp. 609-29. Buchanan, D.A. and Boddy, D. (1992), The Expertise of the Change Agent, Prentice-Hall, London. Burnes, B. (2004) Managing Change: A Strategic Approach to Organizational Dynamics, 4th edition (Harlow: Prentice Hall). Clampitt, Phillip, G. and Berk, Laurey, R. (N.D.) Strategically Communicating Organization Change. http://www.imetacomm.com/otherpubs/pdf_doc_downloads/strat_commg_org_change_v5.pdf [Accessed 28/10/2010]. Current IT Market (2010). Most Viewed Posts Today: Infosys to give unheard of increments. http://www.currentitmarket.net/2010/03/infosys-to-give-unheard-of-increments.html [Accessed 27/10/2010]. Dexternights (2010). Daily dose of Technology and Reviews: Infosys iRace makes employees say I QUIT. http://www.dexternights.com/2010/03/20/infosys-irace-makes-employees-say-i-quit/ [Accessed 27/10/2010]. Gibb, J.R. (1961) Defensive Communication, Journal of Communication, 11(3): 141-48. Gronn, P. (2002) Distributed leadership as a unit of analysis, Leadership Quarterly, 13(4):423-51. Guimaraes, T. and Armstrong, C. (1998) Empirically testing the impact of change management effectiveness on company performance, European Journal of Innovation Management, 1(2), pp. 74-84. Huczynski, A., and Buchanan, A. (2010) Organizational Behaviour, 7th edition. Harlow: Pearson Education, pp. 563-575, 662-663. Infosys (2010). About us: What We Do http://www.infosys.com/about/what-we-do/pages/index.aspx [Accessed 23/10/2010]. Infosys Reports Filings (2010). Quarterly Reports, FY 09-11: Fact Sheet: Consolidated financial data: Attrition. http://www.infosys.com/investors/reports-filings/quarterly-results/2010-2011/Q1/Pages/index.aspx [Accessed 26/10/2010 ] James, A., Belasco and Ralph, C., Stayer (1994). Flight Of The Buffalo http://www.leadershipnow.com/changequotes.html [Accessed 23/10/2010]. Johnston, R. (2000) Hidden capital. In J. Barry, J.Chandler, H. Clark, R. Johnston and D. Needle (eds), Organization and Management: A Critical Text. London: International Thomson Business Press, pp. 16-35. Kanter, R.M. (1989) When Giants Learn to Dance: Mastering the Challenge of Strategy. Management and Careers in the 1990s. London: Simon Schuster. Kubler-Ross, E. (1969) On Death and Dying. Toronto: McMillan. Prosci (2009). Proscis Change Management Webinar Series http://www.change-management.com/Prosci-Webinar-Prereading-2009.pdf [Accessed 23/10/2010]. Stace, D., and Dunphy, D., 2001 The strategic management of corporate change, Human Relations, 46(8), pp. 905-918.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Why I Chose An All Womens College :: essays research papers

Rasheedah Phillips Why Bryn Mawr? As a young woman growing up in an urbanized setting and attending public schools all of my life, when the time came to start planning and searching for colleges, I searched for schools that I felt fit my persona, that I would be comfortable attending for some of the most integral years of my life. My search included schools such as Temple University, and Pennsylvania State University, higher education institutions that allowed me to challenge myself, but at the same time would put me in a setting where I would be with others just like myself, fitting into the standard American university fashion. The thought of an all womenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s college never once crossed my mind in envisioning my Ã¢â‚¬Å"perfect schoolÃ¢â‚¬ , and when it was introduced to me, it was through the prodding of a high school counselor who felt that my intelligence would be better realized and liberated at a school such as Bryn Mawr. After carefully researching Bryn Mawr and all it had to offer as an elite academic institution with stringent admissions requirements and its strong reputation as one of the best liberal art colleges in the nation, I had little doubt that, as far as my intellect and devotion to a rigorous curriculum went, I could run with the best of them. But I remained skeptical that, socially, financially, mentally, and to some degree, academically, I could fit in with the top women in the country who got accepted into a school such as this. I certainly had my biases about all-women colleges, and to find that Bryn Mawr was the best of the best certainly did not help to curb them; if anything, i t created more. My prejudices remained intact up until the day of my scheduled campus visit, overnight stay, and interview on October 7-8, 2001. Stepping up to the door of the admissions office, many of my resolves all but dissolved, as I was kindly greeted by several groups of women who guided me through registration, campus tours, alumnae speeches, and a most excellent dinner, attended by the College President and a presentation of classical music played by four talented young women. I was absolutely enthralled by the beauty of the campus, and pleasantly taken aback by the size, cleanliness, and grandeur of the residence halls. Though these things did help to curtail much of my cynicism about the Ã¢â‚¬Å"all-women collegeÃ¢â‚¬ , I believe that the experience that really attracted me to Bryn Mawr began when my hostess picked me up in the admissions office.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Powdered Milk as Casein Glue

Powdered Milk as Casein (Anacardium Occidentale) Used as Alternative Glue A Research Paper Submitted to the Faculty of Victorious Christian Montessori Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Imus Block 11 Lot 36 Tacloban St. Southern City Tanzang Luma, Imus Cavite In Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for Graduation (Grade School) Rachelle Ann Calaustro Dylan Andrei Paus March 2O13 DEFINE INTRODUCTION In our Grade School Life, we are really going to need glue. First problem is some of students canÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t afford expensive glue because of difficulty in money; the effect is, now the students are enabled to do their project or artwork because of lack of glue.The second problem, glue can be a risk for the children to use because some of glue has toxic chemicals that can harm them. And the researchers donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t want that to happen. The researchers thought of an idea that will solve the problems of many people. So the researchers come up with the idea of using Powdered Milk as Casein Glue. This glue is non-toxi c and is eco-friendly. This cannot harm the children and is much cheaper than the glue that is sold in the stores because some of the ingredients can usually find in the house. It becomes ore interesting for the children to use it because we add some coloring in them. Project Charter Objectives 1. To provide glue that is non-toxic so it wonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t be a risk for the children/people to use it. To test and compare the level of adhesiveness, texture, color and odor perceived by the selected users ( Pupils and Teachers ) Significance of the Study The researchers believed that the result of this study benefited the following: 1. To the Students. This will help the students in their project or artworks in class or in the house. 2. To the Kids.This will not harm the kids if they accidentally eat it. 3. To the People. This will help them to consider our glue instead of other glue. 4. Researchers. This will help them to analyze what is the importance of making an eco-friendly project. Scope and Delimitation (Focus and Directions) The study covers only to produce and test the effectiveness of powdered milk as casein glue. DEFINITION OF TERMS Curd-Ã‚ are aÃ‚ dairy productÃ‚ obtained byÃ‚ curdlingÃ‚ (coagulating)Ã‚ milkÃ‚ withÃ‚ rennetÃ‚ or an edible acidicÃ‚ substance such asÃ‚ lemon juiceÃ‚ orÃ‚ vinegar, and then draining off the liquid portion.The increased acidity causes the milk proteins (casein) to tangle into solid masses, orÃ‚ curds. Coagulate- To cause transformation of (a liquid or solid) into or as if into a soft, semisolid, or solid mass. Casein (AnacardiumOccidentale) -is a protein that is found in milk and used independently in many foods as a binding agent. Technically, it is part of a group calledÃ‚ phosphoproteins, collections of proteins bound to something containing phosphoric acid. It may also be calledÃ‚ caseinogens, particularly in Europen food. Ingredients and Materials Needed Powdered milk |White Vinegar | |Baking soda | Water | |Food Coloring |Sieve | |Container |Measuring Cups Procedure: 1. Heat a casserole with 168 grams of milk powder and 1 liter of water. 2. Stir the milk powder until everything is dissolved. 3.Turn off the stove, and then add 56 ml vinegar. 4. After stirring, separate the curd from the whey using a sieve. 5. Place the curd into a pan then add little water and a tablespoon of baking soda. 6. Heat the mixture until it starts to bubble. Stir it and let it cool. 7. Add drops of food color until you get the right color that you want. 8. Put it in the container then put it in the refrigerator to let it cool. MEASURE |MATERIALS: |COST: | |Powdered Milk 80 g. |23. 50 Php | |Baking Soda 125 g. No budget required | |White Vinegar |No budget required | |Food Color (optional) 20 ml |No budget required | |Water |No budget required | |Sieve |No budget required | |Container |10. 00 Php | Methodology Method of Research The method that we used is descriptive research. Method of Collecting Dat a The researchers collect the information and data mostly in the market and in the house. Another method of collecting data used was survey. Time and Place of Study The study was conducted in the Victorious Christian Montessori- Imus. Statistical ToolsThe following are the statistical tools that used in this research as an instrument basis for quantitative analysis, sufficient interpretation of an existing data. A. Frequency Ã¢â‚¬â€œ it is a statistical treatment wherein data are organized and counted into a desired form. B. Percentages Ã¢â‚¬â€œ the percentages of a given frequency is obtained by dividing the frequency with the total number of frequencies or number of population then multiply the quotient by 100. The formula is: F P= Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€œ x 100 N Where: P = percentage F = frequency N = total number of respondents Advantages of Powdered Milk as Casein(AnacardiumOccidentale) used as an Alternative Glue: 1.It is safe for the children to use because itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s only made of milk. 2. It is environmentally friendly because we donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t use chemicals that can harm the environment. 3. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s easy to prepare. 4. It has pleasant odor than the one that is sold in the bookstore. Disadvantages of Powdered Milk as Casein (AnacardiumOccidentale) used as an Alternative Glue: 1. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s not quick to dry. Summary The researchers conduct this study to determine if the glue made of milk powder is really effective. The researchers found out that it is only craft glue which means it is effective on different kinds of paper and other things for art. The descriptive research was conducted at Block 11 Lot 36 Tacloban St.Southern City, Tanzang Luma, Imus, Cavite. The milk powder has protein casein. Liquid casein is natural glue thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s why milk is able to be glue. Another method of collecting data used was a survey. It was used for the respondents so they can test it if it really works. We prepare survey forms for the respondents, and every survey form has written questionnaire that they would have to answer while testing the produced product and the commercialized product. As we did the survey some of them have negative answers while the other has positive answers. Conclusion The following conclusion has been made after undertaking and studying the survey forms.According to the survey 10 out of 12 agrees that our produced product has strong adhesiveness and 2 out 12 says that it has only moderate adhesiveness. On the Level of Texture there are 11 out of 12 who says that it is smooth and there are 1 out of 12 that says it is slightly rough. On the Level of Color 11 out of 12 respondents says that it has bright color and 1 of 12 respondents says that it has dull color. On the Level of Odor 10 out of 12 says that it has pleasant odor and 2 out 12 says that it has unpleasant odor. Recommendation We recommend the students and children to use it because it doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have chemicals that can harm them. We recommend using the gl ue only for art materials. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s easier to do this at home instead at school.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The Domestication of Maize in America

The Domestication of Maize in America Maize (Zea mays) is a plant of enormous modern-day economic importance as foodstuff and alternative energy source. Scholars agree that maize was domesticated from the plant teosinte (Zea mays spp. parviglumis) in central America at least as early 9,000 years ago. In the Americas, maize is called corn, somewhat confusingly for the rest of the English-speaking world, where corn refers to the seeds of any grain, including barley, wheat or rye. The process of maize domestication radically changed it from its origins. The seeds of wild teosinte are encased in hard shells and arranged on a spike with five to seven rows, a spike that shatters when the grain is ripe to disperse its seed. Modern maize has hundreds of exposed kernels attached to a cob which is completely covered by husks and so cannot reproduce on its own. The morphological change is among the most divergent of speciation known on the planet, and it is only recent genetic studies that have proven the connection. The earliest undisputed domesticated maize cobs are from Guila Naquitz cave in Guerrero, Mexico, dated about 4280-4210 cal BC. The earliest starch grains from domesticated maize have been found in the Xihuatoxtla Shelter, in the Rio Balsas valley of Guerrero, dated to ~9,000 cal BP. Theories of Maize Domestication Scientists have put forward two main theories about the rise of maize. The teosinte model argues that maize is a genetic mutation direct from teosinte in the lowlands of Guatemala. The hybrid origin model states that maize originated in the Mexican highlands as a hybrid of diploid perennial teosinte and early-stage domesticated maize. Eubanks has suggested a parallel development within the Mesoamerican interaction sphere between lowland and highland. Recently starch grain evidence has been discovered in Panama suggesting the use of maize there by 7800-7000 cal BP, and the discovery of wild teosinte growing in the Balsas river region of Mexico has lent support to that model. The Xihuatoxtla rockshelter in the Balsas river region reported in 2009 was discovered to contain domesticated maize starch granules in occupation levels dated to the Paleoindian period, more than 8990 cal BP. That suggests that maize may have been domesticated by hunter-gatherers thousands of years before it became a staple of peoples diets. The Spread of Maize Eventually, maize spread out from Mexico, probably by the diffusion of seeds along trade networks rather than migration of people. It was used in the southwestern United States by about 3,200 years ago, and in the eastern United States beginning about 2,100 years ago. By 700 AD, maize was well established up into the Canadian shield. DNA studies suggest that purposeful selection for various traits continued throughout this period, leading to the wide variety of species today. For example, 35 different races of maize have been identified in pre-Columbian Peru, including popcorns, flint varieties, and varieties for specific uses, such as chicha beer, textile dyes, and flour. Agricultural Traditions As maize was spread outside of its roots in central America, it became part of already existing agricultural traditions, such as the Eastern Agricultural complex, which included pumpkin (Cucurbita sp), chenopodium and sunflower (Helianthus). The earliest direct-dated maize in the northeast is the 399Ã¢â‚¬â€œ208 cal BC, in the Finger Lakes region of New York, at the Vinette site. Other early appearances are Meadowcroft Rockshelter Archaeological Sites Important to Maize Archaeological sites of importance to the discussion of maize domestication include Central America:Ã‚ Ã‚ Xihuatoxtla ShelterÃ‚ (Guerrero, Mexico), Guila Naquitz (Oaxaca, Mexico) andÃ‚ Coxcatlan CaveÃ‚ (Tehuacan, Mexico)Southwest USA:Ã‚ Bat CaveÃ‚ (New Mexico),Ã‚ Gatecliff ShelterÃ‚ (Nevada)Midwest USA: Newt Kash Hollow (Tennesee)Northeast USA: Vinette (New York), Schultz (Michigan), Meadowcroft (Pennsylvania) Some Recent Maize Studies This glossary entry is a part of the About.com Guide toÃ‚ PlantÃ‚ Domestications,Ã‚ and part of theÃ‚ Dictionary of Archaeology. Carpenter Slavens J, and Snchez G. 2013.Ã‚ Los cambios ambientales del Holoceno Medio/ Holoceno TardÃƒ o en el desierto de Sonora y sus implicaciones en la diversificaciÃƒ ³n del Yuto-aztecano y la difusiÃƒ ³n del maÃƒ z.Ã‚ Dilogo AndinoÃ‚ 41:199-210. Ellwood EC, Scott MP, Lipe WD, Matson RG, and Jones JG. 2013.Ã‚ Stone-boiling maize with limestone: experimental results and implications for nutrition among SE Utah preceramic groups.Ã‚ Journal of Archaeological ScienceÃ‚ 40(1):35-44. Freeman, Jacob. Crop Specialization, Exchange and Robustness in a Semi-arid Environment. Human Ecology, John M. Anderies, Andrea Torvinen, et al., Volume 42, Issue 2, SpringerLink, January 29, 2014. Gil AF, Villalba R, Ugan A, Cortegoso V, Neme G, Michieli CT, Novellino P, and Durn V. 2014.Ã‚ Isotopic evidence on human bone for declining maize consumption during the little ice age in central western Argentina. Journal of Archaeological Science 49(0):213-227. Grimstead DN, Buck SM, Vierra BJ, and Benson LV. 2015.Ã‚ Another possible source of archeological maize found in Chaco Canyon, NM: The Tohatchi Flats area, NM, USA.Ã‚ Journal of Archaeological Science: ReportsÃ‚ 3:181-187. Haas J, Creamer W, Huamn MesÃƒ a L, Goldstein D, Reinhard KJ, and Vergel RodrÃƒ guez C. 2013.Ã‚ Evidence for maize (Zea mays) in the Late Archaic (3000-1800 B.C.) in the Norte Chico region of Peru.Ã‚ Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesÃ‚ 110(13):4945-4949. Hart JP, and Lovis WA. 2013. Reevaluating What We Know About the Histories of Maize in Northeastern North America: A Review of Current Evidence. Journal of Archaeological ResearchÃ‚ 21(2):175-216 Killion TW. 2013.Ã‚ Nonagricultural cultivation and social complexity.Ã‚ Current AnthropologyÃ‚ 54(5):596-606. Matsuda, Masahiko. Upland Farming Systems Coping with Uncertain Rainfall in the Central Dry Zone of Myanmar: How Stable is Indigenous Multiple Cropping Under Semi-Arid Conditions? Human Ecology 41, ResearchGate, December 2013. Reed PF, and Geib PR. 2013.Ã‚ Sedentism, Social Change, Warfare, and the Bow in the Ancient Pueblo Southwest.Ã‚ Evolutionary Anthropology: Issues, News, and ReviewsÃ‚ 22(3):103-110. Snchez-PÃƒ ©rez S, Solleiro-Rebolledo E, Sedov S, de Tapia EM, Golyeva A, Prado B, and Ibarra-Morales E. 2013.Ã‚ The Black San Pablo Paleosol of the Teotihuacan Valley, Mexico: Pedogenesis, Fertility, and Use in Ancient Agricultural and Urban Systems.Ã‚ GeoarchaeologyÃ‚ 28(3):249-267. Shillito, Lisa-Marie. Grains of truth or transparent blindfolds? A review of current debates in archaeological phytolith analysis. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, Volume 22, Issue 1, SpringerLink, January 2013. Thompson V, Gremillion K, and Pluckhahn T. 2013.Ã‚ Challenging the Evidence for Prehistoric Wetland Maize Agriculture at Fort Center, Florida.Ã‚ American AntiquityÃ‚ 78(1):181-193. VanDerwarker A, Marcoux J, and Hollenbach K. 2013.Ã‚ Farming and Foraging at the Crossroads: The Consequences of Cherokee and European Interaction Through the Late Eighteenth Century.Ã‚ American AntiquityÃ‚ 78(1):68-88. Warinner C, Garcia NR, and Tuross N. 2013.Ã‚ Maize, beans and the floral isotopic diversity of highland Oaxaca, Mexico.Ã‚ Journal of Archaeological ScienceÃ‚ 40(2):868-873.

Monday, October 21, 2019

Free Essays on Earthquakes

Earthquakes I. Seismic Waves to Study EarthÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Interior A. Travel Time, Reflection, Refraction of P & S Waves 1. Travel time of body waves gives us VP, VS, and (density) as a function of depth. 2. Velocity of P & S waves increases with depth. B. EarthÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Layered Composition 1. Crust a. Quartz, feldspar, and basalt. b. Continental Crust Mostly quartz and feldspar. Lower density than oceanic crust. Variable thickness (10-50 km). c. Oceanic Crust Mostly basalt. Higher density than continental crust. Uniform thickness (10 km). d. Isostacy Crust floats in equilibrium on the denser mantle beneath. 2. Mantle a. Ultramafic Rocks Olivine. Pyroxene. b. Low velocity zone: Convection in mantle distributes heat evenly. c. Polymorphic phase transition 400 km and 660 km. Pressure changes the crystal structure of minerals causing a slow in seismic wave velocity. 3. Core a. Core-Mantle boundary 2913 km. b. Nickel and FE. c. Inner core is 6271 km deep. d. Outer core boundary is 2900 km deep. e. Liquid outer core TM: Melting temperature of ultramafic rocks. S waves cannot propagate through the outer core (liquid). Iron, oxygen, and silicon. C. Mantle is mostly olivine. 1. Seismic waves a. VS, VP, and measured in lab match seismic measurements. 2. Zenolith a. Mantle rocks found in volcanoes with deep roots contain olivine. b. Kimberlite Volcanoes Mantle material brought up very quickly contains olivine and diamonds. Do not erupt anymore. 3. Ophiolite Suite a. Oceanic crest thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s been abducted onto continental crust contains olivine and the moho. 4. Primitive meteorites a. Examining carboneous chondrites (primitive meteorites) with olivine. D. Iron Catastrophy 1. This is how the earth became layered. 2. 4.3 billion years ago. II. Interpreting Seismograms A. Seismograms 1. Short period instruments: T 1 second (body waves).... Free Essays on Earthquakes Free Essays on Earthquakes Earthquakes Throughout history, man has made many advancements. These advancements have been made to make life easier. The one thing man can't do is to control Mother Nature. Mother Nature can cause many things such as earthquakes. The causes of earthquakes have been theorized in many ways. According to the book Predicting Earthquakes by Gregory Vogt, the Greeks, "blamed the earthquakes on Poseidon, god of the sea"(25). The Hindu believed that "the earth was a platform that rested on the back of eight great elephants. When one of the elephants grew weary, it lowered and shook its head causing the ground above to tremble"(Vogt 25). Margaret Poynter writes "many primitive people thought that the earth rested upon the back of some sort of animal. When that animal became restless, great cracks appeared in the ground, and tall trees swayed and fell. In South America, the animal was a whale. In Japan, it was a great black spider or giant catfish. One ancient tribe thought that four bulls supported the earth on their horns. To amuse themselves, they sometimes tossed it from one to another"(6). In the same book, Poynter says "The Chinese believed that monsters lived in the caves inside the earth. When the creatures fought, the surface of the earth trembled (6)." "In Greece, it was not an animal, but a titan named Atlas who was condemned to support the world upon his shoulders. Later, about the third century B.C., a Greek philosopher, Aristotle, had a more scientific explanation. He thought that earthquakes occurred only when hot air masses tried to escape from the center of the earth. Two centuries later, Lucretius, a Roman, wrote that underground landslides caused the earth's surface to move"(Poynter 7).2 Last Name Today, scientists have found a more logical reason to earthquakes. Scientists say almost 600 million years ago, all the continents were connected to form a huge super continent c... Free Essays on Earthquakes Until the 18th century, earthquakes were thought to be caused by air rushing out of caverns deep in the Earth's interior (Watson). But we all know that is not how an earthquake happens. The earthÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s surface is broken into seven large plates (Ã¢â‚¬Å"Major plates in the worldÃ¢â‚¬ ). There are also many other little plates on the surface but seven main ones. Each one of these plates is approximately 50 miles thick and moves against each other a few inches a year (USGS). The seven main plates in the world are: Eurasian plate, Pacific plate, North American plate, Nazca plate, South American plate, Australian plate, and Antarctic plate (Major plates in the world). When the plates move against each other, itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s not just your average plate rubbing. There are three different types of movements at the boundaries of the plates: convergent, divergent and transform-fault (Ã¢â‚¬Å"Major plates in the worldÃ¢â‚¬ ). A convergent movement is when plates move tword each other and colide. An example is when an oceanic plate collides with a continental plate. The oceanic plate slides under the continental plate making a huge ocean trench. This is called a subduction and you can find it where the Nazca plate and the continental Sout American plate (Ã¢â‚¬Å"Major plates in the worldÃ¢â‚¬ ). When continental plates collide, they form new major mountain systems such as the Himalyans (Watson). A divergent movement is when plates move away from each other. The mid-Atlantic ridge is from a divergent movement (Ã¢â‚¬Å"Major plates int the worldÃ¢â‚¬ ). When plates diverge, hot molten rock rises, cools, and fills in the emty spaces adding new formation to the edges of the oceanic plates (Watson). This is also known as sea-floor spreading. (Ã¢â‚¬Å"Major plates in the worldÃ¢â‚¬ ). A transform movement is when two plates move horizontal on each other A perfect example of this is the San Andreas fault (Ã¢â ‚¬Å"Major plates in the worldÃ¢â‚¬ ). Los Angelas lies on the Pacific plate and is slowly moving... Free Essays on Earthquakes Earthquakes I. Seismic Waves to Study EarthÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Interior A. Travel Time, Reflection, Refraction of P & S Waves 1. Travel time of body waves gives us VP, VS, and (density) as a function of depth. 2. Velocity of P & S waves increases with depth. B. EarthÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Layered Composition 1. Crust a. Quartz, feldspar, and basalt. b. Continental Crust Mostly quartz and feldspar. Lower density than oceanic crust. Variable thickness (10-50 km). c. Oceanic Crust Mostly basalt. Higher density than continental crust. Uniform thickness (10 km). d. Isostacy Crust floats in equilibrium on the denser mantle beneath. 2. Mantle a. Ultramafic Rocks Olivine. Pyroxene. b. Low velocity zone: Convection in mantle distributes heat evenly. c. Polymorphic phase transition 400 km and 660 km. Pressure changes the crystal structure of minerals causing a slow in seismic wave velocity. 3. Core a. Core-Mantle boundary 2913 km. b. Nickel and FE. c. Inner core is 6271 km deep. d. Outer core boundary is 2900 km deep. e. Liquid outer core TM: Melting temperature of ultramafic rocks. S waves cannot propagate through the outer core (liquid). Iron, oxygen, and silicon. C. Mantle is mostly olivine. 1. Seismic waves a. VS, VP, and measured in lab match seismic measurements. 2. Zenolith a. Mantle rocks found in volcanoes with deep roots contain olivine. b. Kimberlite Volcanoes Mantle material brought up very quickly contains olivine and diamonds. Do not erupt anymore. 3. Ophiolite Suite a. Oceanic crest thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s been abducted onto continental crust contains olivine and the moho. 4. Primitive meteorites a. Examining carboneous chondrites (primitive meteorites) with olivine. D. Iron Catastrophy 1. This is how the earth became layered. 2. 4.3 billion years ago. II. Interpreting Seismograms A. Seismograms 1. Short period instruments: T 1 second (body waves).... Free Essays on Earthquakes Earthquakes Earthquakes have plagued our lives for as long as people have inhabited the earth. These dangerous acts of the earth have been the cause of many deaths in the past century. So what can be done about these violent eruptions that take place nearly with out warning? Predicting an earthquake until now has almost been technologically impossible. With improvements in technology, lives have been saved and many more will. All that remains is to research what takes place before, during, and after an earthquake. This has been done for years to the point now that a successful earthquake prediction was made and was accurate. This paper will discuss a little about earthquakes in general and then about how predictions are made. Earthquake, Ã¢â‚¬Å"vibrations produced in the earth's crust when rocks in which elastic strain has been building up suddenly rupture, and then rebound.Ã¢â‚¬ (Associated Press 1993) The vibrations can range from barely noticeable to catastrophically destructive. Six kinds o f shock waves are generated in the process. Two are classified as body waves-that is, they travel through the earth's interior-and the other four are surface waves. The waves are further differentiated by the kinds of motions they impart to rock particles. Primary or compressional waves (P waves) send particles oscillating back and forth in the same direction as the waves are traveling, whereas secondary or transverse shear waves (S waves) impart vibrations perpendicular to their direction of travel. P waves always travel at higher velocities than S waves, so whenever an earthquake occurs, P waves are the first to arrive and to be recorded at geophysical research stations worldwide.(Associated Press 1993) Earthquake waves were observed in this and other ways for centuries, but more scientific theories as to the causes of quakes were not proposed until modern times. One such concept was advanced in 1859 by the Irish engineer Rob...

Sunday, October 20, 2019

My Last Duchess Essays

My Last Duchess Essays My Last Duchess Paper My Last Duchess Paper Robert BrowningÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Ã¢â‚¬Å"My Last DuchessÃ¢â‚¬ Published 1842 Our world is changing and evolving at an astounding rate. Within the last 200 years, we have seen two World Wars and countless disputes over false borders created by colonialists, slavery, and every horrid form of human suffering imaginable!! Human lifestyles and cultures are changing every minute. While our grandparents and ancestors were growing up, do you ever think they imagined the world we live in today? What is to come is almost inconceivable to us now. In this world, the only thing we can be sure of is that things will change. With all of these transformations occurring, it is a wonder that a great poet like Robert Browning may write words so many years ago, that are still relevant to you and I in todays modern society. BrowningÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s first dramatic monologue Ã¢â‚¬Å"My last duchessÃ¢â‚¬ was written during the Italian Renaissance when egotism, marriage and aristocracy influenced the society. The monologue is loosely based on historical events involving Alfonso, the Duke of Ferrara, who lived in the 16th century. The Duke is the reciter of the monologue, and tells us he is entertaining an emissary who has come to negotiate the DukeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s marriage (he has recently been widowed) to the daughter of another powerful family. As he shows the visitor through his palace, he stops before a portrait of the late Duchess, apparently a young and lovely girl. The Duke begins reminiscing about the portrait sessions, then about the Duchess herself. His musings give way to a diatribe on her disgraceful behaviour: he claims she flirted with everyone and did not appreciate his Ã¢â‚¬Å"gift of a nine-hundred-years- old name. Ã¢â‚¬ As his monologue continues, the reader realizes with ever-more chilling certainty that the Duke in fact caused the DuchessÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s early demise: when her behaviour escalated, Ã¢â‚¬Å"[he] gave commands; / Then all smiles stopped together. Ã¢â‚¬ But Browning has more in mind than simply creating a colourful character and placing him in a picturesque historical scene. Rather, the specific historical setting of the poem harbours much significance: the Italian Renaissance held a particular fascination for Browning and his contemporaries, for it represented the flowering of the aesthetic and the human alongside, or in some cases in the place of, the religious and the moral. Thus the temporal setting allows Browning to again explore sex, violence, and aesthetics as all entangled, complicating and confusing each other: the lushness of the language belies the fact that the Duchess was punished for her natural sexuality. The DukeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s ravings suggest that most of the supposed transgressions took place only in his mind. Like some of BrowningÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s fellow Victorians, the Duke sees sin lurking in every corner. The reason the speaker here gives for killing the Duchess ostensibly differs from that given by the speaker of Ã¢â‚¬Å"PorphyriaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s LoverÃ¢â‚¬ for murder Porphyria; however, both women are nevertheless victims of a male desire to inscribe and fix female sexuality. The desperate need to do this mirrors the efforts of Victorian society to mould the behaviour- sexual and otherwise- of individuals. For people confronted with an increasingly complex and anonymous modern world, this impulse comes naturally: to control would seem to be to conserve and stabilize. The Renaissance was a time when morally dissolute men like the Duke exercised absolute power, and as such it is a fascinating study for the Victorians: works like this imply that, surely, a time that produced magnificent art like t he DuchessÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s portrait couldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have been entirely evil in its allocation of societal control- even though it put men like the Duke in power.

Saturday, October 19, 2019

The Role of Information Technology in Organization Design Essay

The Role of Information Technology in Organization Design - Essay Example In case of a new technology-based system for Saudi Arabian hospital operational management, we can have a lot of primary and secondary stakeholders. In this regard these stakeholders can influence the system or else the system can influence these stakeholders. Below are some of the main stakeholders of new IS and IT-based technology at Saudi Arabian hospital: (Henry C. Lucas & Baroudi, 1994) and (Laudon & Laudon, 1999) The technology can be proficiently influenced by a lot of cultural characteristics of people at the hospital. In the scenario, there are a lot of aspects related to a culture those can influence the innovative working and handling of the technology-based system. Recognizing the cultural aspect is really a prime factor that is fairly significant for the effectual analysis and investigation of information technologies in that culture at a diversity of levels, comprising executive, nationwide and group, is capable to influence the thriving establishment and exploitation of information technology. In this scenario I will assess some of the major cultural aspects which are outlined below: In case of cultural aspects which can competently influence the functions and operation of the new technology-based system at the Saudi Arabian hospital, we can assess that people are generally expecting an elevated performance in addition to simplicity through the establishment of the new technology-based structure. While in case of experiencing a number of complexities in the systemÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s working and performance they become hopeless. In this scenario, there is an awful need of building appropriate prospect designed for the system management and utilization. The Arabic language is the native language of Saudi Arabia on the other hand new IT system will be based on the English language. In case of system usage, the language based aspects can appear into the enhanced performance of the overall system.Ã‚

Friday, October 18, 2019

ALTERED HEALTH STATUS AND HEALTH PROMOTION IN MENTAL HEALTH NURSING Essay

ALTERED HEALTH STATUS AND HEALTH PROMOTION IN MENTAL HEALTH NURSING - Essay Example His unusual behaviours included the following. He entered without a licence and pointed a gun at a shop assistant. He stabbed a friend during an unprovoked argument. Also, he committed the offence of burglary, and his fingerprints were found at the scene of the crime. Mr. Abouja was imprisoned and then later transferred to a forensic ward due to mental illness. While in the forensic unit, Mr. Abouja suffered a cardiac arrest secondary to a bi-lateral massive pulmonary embolism. After having suffered a pulmonary embolism, Mr. Abouja should be assessed for further risk in the near future. Ã¢â‚¬Å"Confirmation of pulmonary embolism (PE) must be followed by risk stratification in order to obtain information on short-term prognosis and determine the need for more aggressive therapy such as thrombolysis or surgical interventional embolectomyÃ¢â‚¬ (Konstantinides, pp. 69). The medication Mr. Abouja has been placed on is Warfarin, also commonly known as rat poison. The levels of Warfarin ha ve to be carefully evaluated, to ensure that the patient is not poisoned himself. Basically, Warfarin is most likely going to be used for a lengthier amount of time in order to treat Mr. AboujaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s illness. Ã¢â‚¬Å"A vitamin K antagonist such as warfarin should be considered for long-term treatmentÃ¢â‚¬ (Stein, 2007, pp. 129). There is a timetable for how long the Warfarin should be used. Ã¢â‚¬Å"Initial treatment [with Warfarin] is usually for a minimum of three to six monthsÃ¢â‚¬ (James, Ortel, & Tapson, 2007, pp. 42). However, the nurse should make sure Ã¢â‚¬Å"In healthy subjects, sildenafil alone or in combination with warfarin or aspirin did not affect bleeding time or prothrombin time. However, in a recent study, a transient prolongation of bleeding time 1 hour after administration of 100 mg of sildenafil was demonstratedÃ¢â‚¬ (Broderick, 2005, pp. 215). Therefore, bleeding complications are possible when taking Warfarin. Generally, Warfarin is used in these types of situations such as the one in which Mr. Abouja found himself in. Ã¢â‚¬Å"[Warfarin, also known as Coumadin, is] used to prevent the formation of blood clots in the heart and to prevent stroke in patients with conditions such as atrial fibrillation and atrial flutterÃ¢â‚¬ ¦[usage] must be carefully monitored by a [regularly-administered] blood testÃ¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ (Cohen, 2010, pp. 196). Mr. Abouja was given Warfarin for the Pulmonary Embolism. He is being given 3 mg of Risperdal (Risperidone) on a daily basis, a commonly-used antipsychotic. Some of the side effects Mr. Abouja is suffering, among others, are muscle weakness and sexual dysfunction. Mr. AboujaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s mother had a history of heart disease or PE; his father refused to be in touch due to his offences. Mr. Abouja was born in Angola. 2. Identify appropriate assessment tool/framework and provide rationale for ?your choice of tool/framework. (200 words) The assessment measures which would be appropriate to use as a framework f or care would be: 1) a physical assessment; 2) a psychological assessment; and 3) a emotional assessment. The patient had a physical assessment completed upon him. This physical assessment is rationalised by the fact that he needs to have an intervention for any physical problems that may come up since he has just had a major health issue with the cardiac arrest. Interestingly enough, Mr. Abouja had no pain in his upper left arm, which is recognizant of having heart problemsÃ¢â‚¬â€namely, risk of cardiac arrest. The physical assessme

Leading change in Haworth Asia Pacific case study Assignment

Leading change in Haworth Asia Pacific case study - Assignment Example Finally the paper presents a guideline for Haworth Asia to manage the change journey in the near future. The guidelines present some standard tools and checklists that may help Frank Rexach in mapping an action plan for the future. 2. Case Summary and Key Issues 2.1 Introduction Haworth Asia is the second largest designer and manufacturer for contract office furniture and has recently started its second round of global expansion. The company wants to move towards a business model which works in a more integrative way. This will be a change from their present model in which sourcing and product development happens largely in isolation in different parts of the world. Thus the case was about a company which was a global organization and has to manage issues that are relevant to international marketing or international finance. The company also has to manage cross cultural management. 2.2 Office Furniture Industry Haworth is one of the four global leaders in the contract office furnitur e industry along with Steelcase, Herman Miller and Teknion. Haworth has been the most aggressive when it comes to global expansion, with presence in Europe, Australia and China. There are different strategies for global expansion and Haworth has been inclined towards acquisitions and others have been more inclined towards joint ventures. In joint ventures or agency relationships, these companies have to bear with agents or partners who try to push their own cheaper products to customers. Any corporation can adopt different methods to expand internationally. As was mentioned in the case Haworth has been able to choose its preferred mode expansion, partly because it was a private corporation. Normally a company starts with joint ventures or agency relations as it expands internationally. The tactics of Haworth, to expand with direct acquisitions, will be considered aggressive by most standards. Ã‚ 2.3Ã‚ Ã‚ Haworth Asia Pacific Haworth is a private company which has worked to their advantage when it comes to global expansion. Their large competitors have to meet the near term expectations of financial markets, which can be a disadvantage during times of financial crisis (even though the crisis may be due to factors completely external to the furniture business, as in this case it was the dot com bubble burst). Haworth is a global organization since the product design and development takes place largely in USA and Europe, while the sourcing happens largely in Asia, and most of the clients are large multinationals. Haworth Asia pacific differs from Haworth operations in the USA, since Haworth Asia manages both manufacturing and client interaction. In USA, dealers manage the client interface. Haworth Asia was also considering targeting medium-priced segments since they have access to cheap labour and raw material. So when Haworth Asia Pacific decides to shift its head office from Hong Kong to Shanghai, they will be confronted with a unique challenge. For the fir st time in the history and culture of Haworth, the functions of manufacturing and marketing will be reporting to the same leaders. The conflicts and frictions that are usually between manufacturing and marketing in most industry can occur in Haworth Asia Pacific as well. They merit thorough consideration and analysis. 2.4Ã‚ Ã‚ Market Analysis Haworth Asia was number two or three in all the markets, but in all the markets there

UNIX SHELLS Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

UNIX SHELLS - Essay Example Hence, interpreting login commands that will result to the anticipated result. Undeniably, UNIX serves a critical role in the current technological knowhow though to date it has undergone varied and essential developments that give it an advantage over, which this study seeks to highlight. Compared to other operating systems as well as varied computer technological enhancements, what I like regarding UNIX is its speed (Liu, Yue & Guo, 2011). However, historically this has been improving since its inception in 1960s up to date to the extent of being able to numerous daemons that known to operate manually or slowly in UNIXÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s absence (Liu, Yue & Guo, 2011). This is quite advantageous especially currently, whereby almost each venture has almost completely embraced technology in order to evade commercial opposition from competitors. Additionally, it possesses the capability of aiding multiple segments that necessitate usage of varied network cards by the firewall (Liu, Yue & Guo, 2011). Mostly, this is at least 32, which is contrary to the practical NetwareÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s support that has a limit of 16 and windows strictly limited to four (Parker & Morley, 2014). Another aspect that I like about this system encompasses its compatibility whereby poses a capability of suppo rting word processors including WordPerfect as well as StarOffice (Liu, Yue & Guo, 2011). In customizing this system, it entails adequate knowledge coupled how to navigate with ease to ensure the intended adjustments work as necessitated (Robbins, Hannah, Lamb & Lamb, 2008). However, there are varied ways of customizing this system whereby on my side I would encompass setting the right margin such that it will be prompting to wrap sentences automatically (Robbins, Hannah, Lamb & Lamb, 2008). This is without one or user having to execute that command with the aid of a ENTER key thus saving on time (Robbins, Hannah, Lamb & Lamb,

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Case study 'THE CALL CENTRE AT TENGO LTD' Essay

Case study 'THE CALL CENTRE AT TENGO LTD' - Essay Example To facilitate customers, Tengo has customer center that provide various services to its customers such contact centre for spare parts, accessories and for extended product warranties etc. The customer center also provides technical support service for their existing customers; and point for customer complaints. Tengo customer service centre also conducts field enquiries about Tengo products. Tengo contact centre is situated in green-field site situated in the outskirts of large town in the Midlands. This location also has other customer service centre that exerts considerable pressure on labor market. Tengo holds good reputation for paying appreciable monetary compensation to its employees; however, it does not have positive remarks regarding its employment policies terms and conditions. In recent past, Tengo on evaluation of HR mainly in customer centre concluded that centre is overstaffed conduced rationalization and restructuring. Year-end customer feedback has reflected a decline in service quality and HR manager is concerned to explore the element of people and process in this poor performance. According to Marr & Neely (2004, p.7) nowadays the customers of call center are looking for more effective and efficient customer service. ... The report will also conclude with overall remarks on restructuring at Tengo customer centre. THE CHANGES AT TENGO CUSTOMER CENTRE In the periodic HR planning exercise in head-office, HR manager concluded customer centre being overstaffed with respect to its overall growth. For the purpose, staff rationalization and restructuring was conducted. The restructuring move resulted in many changes in the customer centre; broadly can be defined under following three heads (Coucke, Pennings, and Sleuwaegen, 2007): Reduction in the number of jobs Strict demarcation of boundaries of jobs Cost incurred on automated product support system for customer. Interactive systems automated systems aimed to get two benefits of improved quality of service and reduced training and development of employees. Under new structure, entire staff of customer centre was categorized into levels; Level 1 constituted entry-level positions dealing with customer complaints. Majority of advisors were categorized under L evel 2 across various departments. Level 3 advisors accounted those employees assigned task of dealing with detailed technical problems CONSEQUENTIAL IMPACT Consequential impact of the HR move understudy resulted negatively. This new structure that defined boundaries ended the employeesÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ movement across the departments; resulted in ending up of learning and development opportunities available to employees with rotation across department. Overall, call centre job has low intrinsic value (Sako, 2006). Call centre jobs are classified into two groups of Ã¢â‚¬Ëœquality oriented and Ã¢â‚¬Ëœquantity oriented. As the name implies, former is characterized with more multifaceted and individualized interaction of call agent with customer

Business Law Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 1

Business Law - Case Study Example During the exam, Grothe asked Eelbode to do an exercise and during it Eelbode experienced immediate sharp and burning pain in his lower back and down the back of his right leg. Consequently, Eelbode filed a suit in a Washington state court against Grothe and Chec, claiming that he was injured because of an improperly administered back torso strength test. Based on the exculpatory document signed by Eelbode, Grothe and Chec filed a motion for summary judgment. The issue is whether the court should grant the motion and consider the exculpatory clause valid. RULE:Ã‚ An adhesion contract is a legally binding contract, presented by one party to the other in a standardized form which contains clauses written exclusively by one party, without them being properly negotiated with the other party. This is the result of unequal bargaining power and causes unfair consequences to the adhering party. APPLICATION: The agreement signed between Norbert Eelbode and Grothe and Chec is an adhesion contract which did not offer Norbert the opportunity to negotiate its clauses. Norbert did not have a choice to sign or not to sign the exculpatory clause as he needed to pass the medical exam in order to get a job at Travelers Inn. Therefore, he was forced by the circumstances to sign the contract. Agreeing to that clause would not have been a problem if the physical injuries suffered by Norbert would not have occurred during the improper strength test. The exculpatory clause signed by Norbert actually forced him to give up any legal method of protecting his rights and repairing the suffered damages. This is unfair to Norbert, and, therefore, the agreement signed by him and Grothe and Chec is an adhesive one and should not be enforced. CONCLUSION: The court should consider the agreement signed by Norbert Eelbode an adhesive one and should not enforce it. Therefore, the exculpatory clause should not be considered

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

UNIX SHELLS Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Business Law Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 1

Drinking and driving Essay Example for Free

Drinking and driving Essay On Jan.8, 2002, President Bush signed the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB) that became the education-reform bill. The No Child Left Behind is most sweeping education-reform bill since 1965 that made changes to the the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. The No Child Left Behind plays a big part in the lifeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s of students, parents, teachers, and the future of the educational system. Ã¢â‚¬Å"No longer content to provide access to education for traditionally extended students populations, we are now demanding that these students receive equally good educations. Ã¢â‚¬ In other words, administrations are now demanding equality of quality. President Bush thinks that all students are title to high quality education, treated equal, fair, and to be safe while at school. The No Child Left Behind places significant responsibilities on state educational agencies, school districts, principals, and the teachers. Ã¢â‚¬Å"In 2002 the federal government returned to the force front in potentially historic fashion.Ã¢â‚¬ With the passage of No Child Left Behind, supported by bipartism majorities in Congress, the nation committed itself to the achievement of every student in America. The No Child Left Behind in the federal system the United States for every education state and school districts fail to meet the requirements of No Child Left Behind Act that will be held accountable, with the opportunity to improve their down fall. Each state makes their own standards for what a child should know and learn for grades, for math and reading the standards should be developed first. Every student should be tested by the standards. All school districts should make adequate yearly progress toward meeting their state standards. Schools that fail need all the support they can get to improve their progress. The school or District shall come up with an idea thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s going to meet all necessary to make higher goals. The No Child Left Behind has a standardize by making sure that all teachers were high. The No CLB Act has In the article (TeacherÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Views on No child left behind) teachers was the no child left behind law Ã¢â‚¬Å"The federal legislation provides considerable discretion to states that can develop their own academic content standards, choose the tests they will administer, and specify the minimum scores students must obtain to be declared Ã¢â‚¬Å"proficientÃ¢â‚¬ . The no child left behind law increased the attention to many schools that pay to academic achievement and to disadvantage children that make it better. Ã¢â‚¬Å"As a result, the skills, and knowledge of the subgroups of children that historically have not increased as rapidly under many state tests would suggest. Second, no child left behind has increased the efforts of schools scores, third, adequate yearly progress rules; some states increased the migration of experienced teachers out of school serving high concentrations of low Ã¢â‚¬â€œ performing students. No child left behind represents that parents of students who are attending title I schools are given the option to transfer their students to another school in the district for improvement status, If a student requested to be transferred shall be allowed to transfer. The No Child Left Behind, has two new educational options, -supplemental educational services and school choice for title I schools for restricting, improvement, and corrective action by the options depends on parental decisions. Parents will know their student assessments. If the school needs improvement the parent will be informed. Conclusion: The No Child Left Behind Act is great. Every child should have the right to receive an education, and be safe while in school. There so many jobs and opportunities will be required to have a college degree in order for a student to have success in life they need an education. The No Child Left Behind Act helps and gives students the impossible they did not have. The NoÃ‚ Child Left Behind made school districts accountability achievement. ON January 8, 2002 President Bush signed the No Child Left Behind (NCLB), Act the reform bill improves studentÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s goals on the state- wide testing, and The No Child Left Behind has admirable goal of improvement in the educational system. President Bush thinks that no child should be left behind and that all children are entitled to education, treated fair and to be safe. No matter what the student is, their race, where they live, they should be entitled to an equal education. ReferencesÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ Abernathy, S. (2007). No child left behind and the public schools {electronic resource} / Scott Franklin Abernathy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, c2007. Michigan Press. In 2001 the author researcher at Ann Arbor: University of President George W. BushÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s education reform legislation, the no child left behind act (H.R. 1). Testing and accotability provisions Chubb, J.E. (2009). Learning from no child left behind {electronic resource}: how and why the nationÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s most important but The Author research stand ford, California. : hoover institution Murnane, R., Papay, J. (2010). TeacherÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s views on no child left behind: support for the principles, concerns about the practices. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(3), 151- 166 Programs, all other Miscellaneous Schools Believes that the school should not be accountable for teaching all children well. The No child left behind is to improve all studentsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ performance. Put studentsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ performance in data gives the parents opportunity to see the childÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s performance. Students that attend low-performing schools start to develop discipline issues, their want to be transferred to a better Ã¢â‚¬â€œ performing school. School that doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t need their goals will offer including free tutoring, and after school instruction. Randolph, K., Wilson Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Younger, D. (2012). Ã¢â‚¬ Is No Child Left Behind Effective For All Students?Ã¢â‚¬ Parents donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t think so. Online submission. The authorÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s researchers Database: ERIC. Since the No child left behind is to discuss the advantage of the core requirements for its implementation. Parents have concerns whether the children are really learning. Zimmer, R., Gill, B., Raquin, Booker, K., Lockwood, J., Department of education, w.c (2007). State and Local Implementation of the Ã¢â‚¬Å"No Child Left BehindÃ¢â‚¬ (N ls-Ã¢â‚¬Å"nclbÃ¢â‚¬ ). The author researchers us department ofÃ‚ education. The key component the no child left behind for the parent children that were attending title I school options for corrective action, improvement, failure achieve toward meeting state standards.

Monday, October 14, 2019

Cameras are an everyday commodity

Cameras are an everyday commodity Introduction / history Cameras are an everyday commodity and are commonly used today. It is a much simpler and advance device compared to the first ever camera made; the camera obscura. It was a sliding wooden box camera with a dark chamber which consists of an optical device. The first photograph taken with the camera obscura was by Joseph Nicephore Niepce in year 1814 but the image was only temporary. Soon after, the first practical photograph method was invented by Louis Jacques Daguerre and named it Ã¢â‚¬Å"daguerreotypeÃ¢â‚¬ . However the process was perfected by William Fox Talbot and named it the Ã¢â‚¬Å"CalotypeÃ¢â‚¬ in 1840. It is the first negative-positive process making multiple copies possible. The use of photographic film was found by George Eastman. His first camera called Ã¢â‚¬Å"KodakÃ¢â‚¬ was a very simple box camera with a fixed focus lens and single shutter speed. It came along with a relatively low price which appealed to many average consumers. In 1900, He broadens mass market photography by introducing the concept of snapshot also known as Ã¢â‚¬Å"the BrownieÃ¢â‚¬ . George Eastman is known to bring photography and cameras general to the public. In 1913, the first 35mm camera develops. Oskar Barnack explored using 35mm cine film while building a compact camera capable for high quality enlargements. It gains immediate popularity as the format of choice for high end compact cameras. The 35mm cameras were expensive for most people and remain rollfilm as the format of choice for mass market cameras. However, 35mm film came to dominate the market when the cheapest cameras using rollfilm was discontinued. As conventional cameras became more sophisticated, a new type of camera appeared in the market. Edwin Land invented instant cameras; Polaroid photography. The Polaroid camera allows photographer to remove a developing print after the image is snapped. It was later made available to the public in 1948. In 1986, Fuji introduced disposable cameras. It is a camera that recycles parts which later was named Ã¢â‚¬Å"single use camerasÃ¢â‚¬ . In the late 1980s, digital photography entered the market of commerce. Kodaks introduction on the professional digital camera system (DSC) allows photojournalists to take electronic pictures. However, the first real digital camera introduced to consumers was in 1990. The camera was able to store compressed images and later downloaded into a PC or a Mac via cable. Photography became common to consumers and made available to consumers by the creator of Macintosh computer. It is a color digital camera with a 50mm fixed focus lens. Also able to store images into its memory, this had set some quality for digital cameras in the future.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Essay --

Every morning I wake up at the last minute. I press snooze from the moment my alarm goes off at 6:50 a.m. to 7:45 a.m. I go to bed early, but I canÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t seem to get enough sleep. Teens are supposed to sleep for at least eight to nine hours every night. Having school start at 8:30 a.m. doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t help because teens like me have to work at night. After work I get home late and have homework to do before school the next morning, which keeps me up past midnight sometimes. Studies show that even getting a half an hour more of sleep improves childrenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s learning ability from eighteen to forty-four percent (School Really). If school started later teens would improve their grades and their health. Concentration from students is obviously one of the most important aspects in learning new things. It has been proven that if students sleep in, even if itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s only a half hour longer than normal, theyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢re more likely to have better concentration, behavior, and overall health. Ã¢â‚¬Å"A sleep disorder not only results in a sleepy, cranky, and often poor-performing student at school, but also an irritable, unhappy child or teenager at homeÃ¢â‚¬ (Debatewise). Teenagers have a lot of stress put on them. One of the main stresses in teenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s lives is not getting enough sleep. Most teenagers have a job to help support their families and pay for their car insurance, gas, and other things they need. On top of having a job, many teenagers are in sports that occupy a lot of their free time. Teenagers are also pressured into getting all of their homework done in short amounts of time just to get good grades. The last thing that teenagers are worried about is sleep. Teenagers donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t realize how important sleep is not only to their education, but their health in general. ... ...l should start later varies. For one, itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s dangerous to drive to school tired. Automobile accidents are most commonly caused by inexperienced drivers. Imagine being inexperienced and being so tired to the point where you can barely keep your eyes open all because you have to be at school bright and early. Cutting back the time teens arrive at school has been proven to lower the risk of car crashes. There was a school that had cut car accidents by 17% just by changing the time school begins (3 Reasons). Being tired also causes depression, depression makes it harder for students to concentrate on whatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s most important, their homework (3 Reasons). I canÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t stress enough how important it is to get good grades. Getting good grades and having a good GPA, not only helps you become who you want to be when you get older, but it helps you get into any college you like.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Internet Advertising Ã¢â‚¬ A World Wide Waste of Time Essay -- Argumentati

Internet Advertising Ã¢â‚¬â€œ A World Wide Waste of Time As I approach the Philadelphia bus shelter, I'm struck by the gaze of a familiar, yet ominous strongman. His aging muscles are backlit by a powerful fluorescent light. Intrigued, I approach the advertisement and begin to look at the copy. As my eyes scan below the title of the film, an irritating, unavoidable, and inevitably cryptic message glows: http://www.warnerbros.com/eraser. Here is another website for the fearless compujunkies to surf at three in the morning and another piece of litter along the information superhighway. While computer users like myself have the choice to turn off their computers or stop their net searches, it is more and more difficult to remove the strands of the net from our personal lives. When we return home from a long day of work, television now flashes an endless barrage of corporate web addresses at us. When we pick up our newspapers to browse the comics, it is difficult to flip past a handful of pages without spotting a '...dot- com' along the way. The web's marketing frenzy is no longer limited to literature, entertainment, and computer browsing. Within the past few months I have noticed the web's subtle migration from the virtual into the physical. Products ranging from children's cereal to artificial sweeteners all boast web addresses printed on them. Open up your pantry and you may be surprised to see how many munchies you own with web support. Children can check out the 'You Rule School' page for cereal kingpins General Mills, Inc. where you can play with food and view the trix rabbit, the honey bee, the leprechaun, and the cocoa pebbles creature. If that drives you coocoo you can turn to the history of Snicker's bars or Mars' conc... ...s it may seem, works. It is unlikely that the trend of releasing the virtual upon the real will end because of corporate guilt. In the meantime, enjoy the simplicity of having only a hundred channels to watch, reading electronic magazines before your web connection backs up for hours, and take a walk after work to relieve stress. If you need to find a recipe, call a friend or ask a colleague, and avoid the Ragu woman. Work on the development of a V-chip (that would be Vidiot) to block out sites of no value for your children. If you happen to run into Arnold Schwarzenegger, tell him to stick to the cinema; he loses his zest on a 13 inch monitor. References 'Web ads mark 7nd birthday with decisive issues ahead' by Debra Aho Williamson Advertising Age August 2003 'Outlook Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ04: Will Web ads go mainstream?' by Debra Aho Williamson Advertising Age October 2003

Friday, October 11, 2019

Traffic Movement in Lufthansa Airlines: a Supply Chain Perspective

Journal of Services Research Volume 10 Number 2 October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011 FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. Debadyuti Das Associate Professor, Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. The Journal of IIMT FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Debadyuti DasThe present paper attempts to find out the forecasted passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines on quarterly basis at a global level by employing four forecasting methods namely moving average, exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model with the help of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. The study has also found out the forecasting errors of all the four methods through Absolute error (AE), Mean squared error (MSE), Mean absolute deviation (MAD ) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).The study also carried out the comparative analyses of the above forecasting methods in the light of the available data. The findings reveal that the forecasting errors are the least in case of Winter's model. Further the forecasted values suggested by Winter's model more closely resemble the observed data of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. This provides a valuable insight to the top management as regards formulation of suitable strategies for addressing the varying demand of passenger traffic movement.Few strategies in respect of both demand side and supply side options have been suggested with a view to improving the overall supply chain profit of Lufthansa Airlines. INTRODUCTION irlines industry across the globe is currently undergoing recession due to severe financial crisis faced by the major economies of the world. As per the estimates of International Air Transport Association (IATA), globally air travel has declin ed by 2. 9% and 1. 3% during September and October, 2008 respectively compared to the same months in the previous year.Segment-wise passenger traffic estimates provided by IATA further reveal that the Asia Pacific Carriers and North American Carriers registered a decline in passenger traffic flow by 6. 1% and 0. 9% respectively in October, 2008 compared to the same month in the previous year. African Carriers recorded the largest decline in traffic flow by 12. 9% in October, 2008 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) Ã‚ ©2010 by Institute for International Management and Technology. All Rights Reserved. A 4 Forecasting the Passenger compared to the same month in the previous year. The remaining segments namely European, Latin American and Middle Eastern Airlines experienced a moderate growth in its traffic flow to the tune of 1. 8%, 4. 5% and 3. 5% respectively in October, 2008 (IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, 2008b). Howe ver, the financial crisis sweeping across the globe does not appear to have much negative impact on Lufthansa Airlines in respect of its passenger traffic flow till September, 2008 as revealed from the data provided in table 2a.A cursory observation into the table 2 further demonstrates that the passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines has been following a very systematic pattern since October, 2006 to September, 2008. There has been hardly any departure from the pattern observed in passenger traffic movement during the above period. Despite difficult market conditions, Lufthansa passenger Airlines was able to achieve a sales growth of 4. 2% and 0. 7% in September and October, 2008 respectively.It registered an increase in its passenger traffic flow in three major markets namely America (North/South), Asia/ Pacific, and Middle East & Africa both during September and October, 2008. American segment recorded a growth rate of 6. 9% and 1% during September and October, 2008 respecti vely. Asia/Pacific region exhibited an increasing trend of 8. 8% and 6% while Middle East and African region recorded an increasing trend of 2. 5% and 11% during September and October, 2008 respectively. Only European market experienced a declining trend to the tune of 0. 4% and 3% during the above periods (Lufthansa Investor Info, page 1, 2008).The above phenomenon has motivated us to apply the most popular and well-established forecasting methods with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines for future periods. The main objective of the paper is to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines at a global level with the help of moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), HoltÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s model and WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s model by making use of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa Airlines.In addition, the paper has also attempted to find out the most suitable forecasting model for the above problem by comparing the forecasting errors of the above four forecasting models obtained through absolute error (AE), mean squared error (MSE), mean Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 65 Singh, Das absolute deviations (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The following section provides a brief review of literature. Section 3 provides a brief overview of Lufthansa Airlines along with the recent data on passenger traffic movement.It contains a thorough analysis of forecasted passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods and the comparative analysis of the same. Section 4 suggests few strategies for absorbing the varying nature of demand. The paper is concluded with a brief summary, potential contribution and limitations of the same. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Forecasting literature is replete with a number of studies ranging from simple time-series forecasting models to economet ric models as also the forecasting models employing artificial intelligence techniques etc.Researchers have employed the forecasting models with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of traffic for a particular period. However, the study findings reveal that there does not exist a single model which consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Quantitative forecasting methods can be categorized under three broad heads: (1) time-series modeling, (2) econometric models and (3) other quantitative models (Song and Li, 2008). Under time-series models, several techniques are available, e. g.Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, HoltÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model, WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model, ARIMA etc. (Makridakis et al, 2003). In time-series model, particular attention is paid to exploring the historic trends and patterns of the time-series involved and to predict the future of this series based on trends and patterns identified in the model. Since time-series models require only historica l observations of a variable, it is less costly in data collection and model estimation. However, these models cannot account for the changes in demand that might occur in different periods.The major advantages of econometric models over time-series models lie in their ability to analyze the causal relationships between the demand and its influencing factors (Song and Li, 2008; Makridakis et al, 2003). It is possible for econometric models to take into consideration several variables together, for example, air fare charged by an airline, competitive fare offered by other airlines, promotional campaign, perceived security threat, price and income elasticity of Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 6 Forecasting the Passenger demand etc. However, it is difficult and costly to collect data on each individual variable, incorporate the same into the model and explain its contribution towards the dependent variable. A number of new quantitati ve forecasting methods, predominantly Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, have emerged in forecasting literature. The main advantage of AI techniques is that it does not require any preliminary or additional information about data such as distribution and probability (Song and Li, 2008).Table 1 provides a brief overview of some related works pertaining to forecasting and traffic movement in airlines. Table 1: Brief Overview of Few Works Relating to Traffic Movement in Airlines Author Choo and Mokhtarian (2007) Contribution Developed a conceptual model in a comprehensive framework, considering causal relationships among travel, telecommunications, land use, economic activity and socio-demographics and explored the aggregate relationships between telecommunications and travel using structural equation modeling of national time-series data spanning 1950-2000 in the US.Proposed an artificial neural network (ANN) structure for seasonal time-series forecasting. Results found by the p roposed ANN model were compared with the traditional statistical models which reveal that the prediction error of the proposed model is lower than the traditional models. The proposed model is especially suitable when the seasonality in time-series is very strong. Developed a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport.The existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world is considered. In addition, the growth rates by country or region is also taken into account. The future origin and destination demand in then converted into route traffic subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. Applied Static-regression trend-fitting model for the purpose of forecasting future tourism demand in North Cyprus.Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to China and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to Australia for the purpose of forecasting business tourism and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Employed autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for the purpose of forecasting tourism demand at Greece.Hamzacebi (2008) Dennis (2002) Bicak, Altinay and Jenkins (2005) Kulendran and Shan (2002) Kulendran and Witt (2003) Dritsakis and Athanasiadia (2000) THE CASE OF LUFTHANSA AIRLINES Deutsche Lufthansa (Lufthansa), the third largest airlines of Europe, is the worldÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s fifth largest airline in terms of overall passengers carried and operating services to 209 destinations in 81 countries. It has the 6th largest passenger airline fleet in the world.Lufthansa is headquartered in Cologne, Germany with its main base and primary traffic hub at Frankfurt International Airport in Frankfurt and a second hub at Munich International Airport. Lufthansa has built a premium b rand synonymous with quality, innovation, reliability, competence and safety despite operating in a tough market where cost cutting is commonplace. Lufthansa founded the worldÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s first multilateral airline grouping, Ã¢â‚¬ËœStar AllianceÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ along with Air Canada, SAS, Thai Airways and United Airlines.At the same time, the airline invested in the most advanced passenger aircrafts and in 1999 it embarked on a vast IT programme that would transform the revenue and profit of its passenger Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 67 Singh, Das airline business (Lufthansa, Wikipedia, 2008). However, estimating the demand of passenger traffic for a particular period has always been the principal determinant in generating revenue for the airline. Table 2a shows the passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa (excluding the number in Swiss Airlines) Airlines for the period during October, 2006 to September, 2008.Table 2 (a): Monthly Traffic F low for the Last Two Years Traffic Year Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Month Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Passenger traffic (in thousands) 4936 4327 3969 3851 3820 4668 4635 4991 5003 5241 5067 5193 5241 4604 4132 4141 4223 4625 5031 5152 5203 5171 4883 5164 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000Table 2 (b): Quarterly Data of Passenger Quarters Passenger traffic Source of data: Key data, Lufthansa Investor Relations, 2008; Lufthansa Investor Info, page 2, 2008 The monthly passenger traffic shown in table 2 (a) has been utilized to calculate the quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 68 Forecasting the Passenger (from Quarter 4, 2006 to Quarter 3, 2008) w hich has been shown in table 2 (b).With the help of these quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years, we have attempted to find out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods namely 4-period Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, HoltÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model and WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model. Table 3 presents the forecasted values through 4-quarter moving average while table 4 shows the forecasted data through simple exponential smoothing. Table 5 and 6 shows the forecasting through HoltÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s model along with forecasting errors.Table 7 through 10 reveals, in detail, the forecasted demand of the passenger traffic flow by employing WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model. Table 10 also includes the forecasting errors. The exercise reveals that the forecasting errors are the lowest in case of WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model which are indicated by the values of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Moreover, the quarterly forecasted values suggested by WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Mode l closely follow historical pattern which is clearly depicted in figure 1. FORECASTING THROUGH 4-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE (MA) Moving Average method is generally employed in a situation in which only level, i. e. eseasonalized demand is present and neither trend nor seasonality is observed. We took the average traffic flow of four quarters starting from the 4th quarter of 2006 and continued the exercise till the 3 rd quarter of 2008 for the purpose of finding out the forecasted passenger traffic movement in the immediate following quarter. Table 3 presents the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement through four-quarter MA method. In the same table, the values of forecasting errors measured in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE are also shown. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 9 Singh, Das Table 3: Forecasting through 4-Period Moving Average & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) Forecast (F) Four Period Moving Average Method Absolute Error Mean Squared Error Error (E) (AE) (MSE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 2006 Q- 4 13232000 2007 Q- 1 12339000 2007 Q- 2 14629000 2007 Q- 3 15501000 13925250 2007 Q- 4 13977000 14111500 13925250 2008 Q- 1 12989000 14274000 14111500 2008 Q- 2 15386000 14463250 14274000 2008 Q- 3 15218000 14392500 14463250 -51750 1122500 -1112000 -754750 51750 1122500 1112000 754750 2678062500 6. 31342E+11 8. 3076E+11 7. 67219E+11 51750 587125 762083. 3333 760250 % Error MAPE Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14392500 0. 37025113 0. 37025113 8. 64192779 4. 50608946 7. 22734954 5. 41317615 4. 95958733 5. 29977895 Formula used Systematic demand = Level Lt= (Dt + Dt-1+Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Dt-n+1)/N Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (ES) Like moving average method, exponential smoothing is also used in a situation, in which only level is observed. However, ES attempts to smoothen the fluctuations observed in demand data o f different periods through smoothing constant (alpha).We first calculated the level of passenger traffic flow of the initial period by taking the average of actual traffic flow for the last eight quarters, which has been considered as the forecasted value of passenger traffic flow for quarter 1. Table 4 demonstrates the forecasted values through simple ES. The same table also contains the values of forecasting errors expressed in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 70 Forecasting the Passenger Table 4: Forecasting through Simple Exponential Smoothing & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 % Error 7. 0479897 13. 9977916 5. 02789835 9. 89599461 1. 02611209 8. 60018261 9. 04478131 7. 12621269 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 MAPE 7. 00479897 10. 5012953 8. 67682963 8. 98162087 7. 39051912 7. 5921297 7. 79965136 7. 71547153 Formula used Systematic de mand = Level Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt Lt+1=alpha(Dt+1)+(1-alpha)Lt alpha=0. 1 Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14241980 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 8 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 14241979. 66 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 88 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 926875 1727187. 5 -735531. 25 -1533978. 1 143419. 688 1117077. 72 -1391630. 1 -1084467 926875 1727187. 5 735531. 25 1533978. 125 143419. 6875 1117077. 719 1391630. 053 1084467. 048 8. 59097E+11 1. 92114E+12 1. 46109E+12 1. 68409E+12 1. 35139E+12 1. 33413E+12 1. 42021E+12 1. 38969E+12 926875 1327031. 25 1129864. 583 1230892. 969 1013398. 313 1030678. 214 1082242. 762 1082520. 98 Forecast (F) Simple Exponential Smoothing Method Absolute Error Error (E) (AE) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Average Deviation (MAD) (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH HOLT'S MODEL We carried out a regression analysis wherein Time period was considered on X-axis and passenger traffic data was taken on Y-axis in order to find out the initial level and trend. Holt's model, also known as trend-corrected exponential smoothing, is applicable in a situation, in which level and trend are observed in the demand data. However, seasonality is not considered in Holt's model.We used the Ã¢â‚¬Å"Linest FunctionÃ¢â‚¬ of Microsoft Excel to calculate the values of L0 and T0, which is shown in table 5. Table 5: Regression to Find Initial Level and Trend for Holt's Model x (Period) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 270154. 7619 T0 y (Traffic) 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 12943178. 57 L0 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 71 Singh, Das Once the initial values of level of trend are found, the subsequent values of the level and trend of each period are iteratively calculated following Holt's model which is shown in table 6.This finally helps in finding out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement as per Holt's model, which is shown in table 6. Table 6 also reveals the forecasting errors. Table 6: Forecasting through Holt's Model Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Trend(T) 270528. 095 Level (L) 13215200 Forecast (F) 13213333. 33 13485728. 1 13618648. 82 13987484. 49 14436906. 91 14679788. 95 14765767 15095251. 1 Error (E) -18666. 67 1146728. 1 -1010351 -1513516 459906. 91 1690788. 9 -620233 -122748. 1 Absolute Error (AE) 18666. 66667 1146728. 095 1010351. 181 1513515. 506 459906. 9118 1690788. 949 620232. 9957 122748. 0864 T8=269916. 6 15377443 15647360 15917276 16187193 Formula used Systematic demand = Ft+1=Lt+T t alpha =0. 1 Beta = 0. 2 Lt+1 = alpha(D t+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+T t) T t+1= beta(Lt+1-Lt)+(1-beta)Tt Lev el + Trend Ft+n =Lt+nT t Mean Squared Error (MSE) 348444444. 4 6. 57667E+11 7. 78714E+11 1. 15672E+12 9. 67677E+11 1. 28286E+12 1. 15455E+12 1. 01211E+12 270154. 762 12943178. 7 247593. 533 13371055. 29 267800. 557 13719683. 94 298070. 867 14138836. 04 288872. 729 14390916. 22 255056. 95 267461. 61 14510710. 05 14827790. 3 269916. 571 15107526. 72 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 18666. 66667 582697. 381 725248. 6476 922315. 3622 829833. 6721 973326. 2183 922884. 3294 822867. 299 % Error 0. 141072148 9. 293525369 6. 906495187 9. 763986233 3. 290455117 13. 0170833 4. 031151668 0. 806598018 MAPE 0. 141072148 4. 717298758 5. 447030901 6. 526269734 5. 879106811 7. 068769558 6. 634824146 5. 90629588 L8=15107527 F9 F10 F11 F12 Forecasted Traffic Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH WINTER'S MODEL WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s model, also known as trend and seasonality-corrected ES, is generally employed in a situation in which all characteristic features of demand data, i. e. level (Lt), trend (Tt) and seasonality (St) are observed. The actual demand (Dt), being seasonal in nature, is transformed into deseasonalized demand (Ddt ). The deseasonalized demand data and corresponding time periods are employed to run regression analysis in order to calculate the initial level (L0) and trend (T0) which is shown in table 7.The values of L0 and T0 are then used to find out the estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) of passenger traffic of different time periods. Seasonal factors for each period are calculated using the formula Dt /(Dt) as shown in table 8. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 72 Forecasting the Passenger Table 7: Regression Analysis for Finding out the Deseasonalized Demand X (Period) 3 4 5 6 140439. 5 Y (Deseasonalized demand)(Ddt) 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13619931 T0 L0 Table 8: Calculation of Seasonal Factors for Winter's ModelPeriod(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13760370. 5 13900810 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 5 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 0. 961602015 0. 887646116 1. 041858846 1. 093029187 0. 97590243 0. 898111594 1. 053618578 1. 032187385 Quarters Actual demand (Dt ) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Dt =L+Tt Seasonal factors (Dt / D t) Subsequently seasonality (St) is recalculated for each period as per Winter's model which is shown in table 9.Level and trend of each period are also iteratively calculated following Winter's model which have been mentioned in detail in table 9. Finally table 10 demonstrates the forecasted data of passenger traffic flow along with forecasting errors. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 73 Singh, Das Table 9: Determination of Level, Trend and Seasonal Factors (Winter's Model) Period(t) Quarters Actual Traffic (Dt) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) 13760370. 5 13900810 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 Seasonality St Level(L) Trend(T) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 0. 968752222 0. 892878855 1. 047738712 1. 062608286 0. 968072702 0. 892415518 1. 047252432 1. 065603208 0. 968770988 0. 892874843 1. 047722994 1. 062255808 13619931 13755292. 34 13891430. 02 14027555. 72 14187811. 57 14334567. 79 14480348. 88 14626058. 49 14744278 140439. 5 139931. 6844 139552. 284 139209. 6254 141314. 2474 141858. 4444 142250. 709 142596. 999 140158. 8902 Table 10: Forecasting through Winter's Model and the Forecasting Errors Forecast(F) 13330389. 5 12406751. 72 14700803. 33 15053722. 24 13871635. 54 12918987. 41 15313552. 98 15737526. 24 Error(E) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 -447 277. 7569 -105364. 4571 -70012. 58968 -72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Absolute Error(AE) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 447277. 7569 105364. 4571 70012. 58968 72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Mean Squared Error (MSE) 9680494002 7135394612 6475502625 54870974917 46117113697 39247888533 34390843099 63830427174 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 98389. 0148 83070. 60949 79314. 85071 171305. 5772 158117. 3532 143433. 226 133292. 3392 181571. 577 % Error 0. 743572411 0. 549085967 0. 490828718 2. 885476788 0. 753841719 0. 539014471 0. 470863243 3. 413893032 MAPE 0. 743572411 0. 646329189 0. 594495699 1. 167240971 1. 084561121 0. 993636679 0. 91895476 1. 230822044 L8=14407445 T8=3284577 Formula used Systematic component of demand =(level+demand)*seasonal factor Ft+1 = (Lt+T t)St+1 Ft+i=(Lt+iTt)St+i L t+1 = alpha (Dt+1/St+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+Tt) T t+1= Beta (Lt+1 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ Lt) + (1- Beta)T t St+p+1= gamma (Dt+1/Lt+1) + (1-gamma)St+1 Alpha = 0. 5 beta=0. 1 gamma=0. 1 Forecasted traffic F9 F10 F11 F12 14419 610. 62 13415083. 6 15888462. 17 16257733. 32 (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) COMPARISON AMONG FOUR FORECASTING METHODS The following figure gives an interesting revelation regarding the behaviour of forecasted data by comparing the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic obtained through all four methods. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 74 Forecasting the Passenger Historical traffic Forecasted traffic Moving Average Simple exponential smoothing HoltÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Model WinterÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s ModelFigure 1: Comparison among four forecasting methods The portion of the graph before the vertical line indicates historical data while the portion of the graph after the line is the forecasted data. The forecasted data of the model graph (Winter's Model) replicates the historical data. It indicates a positive trend as well as seasonality. FORMULATION OF SUITABLE STRATEGIES FOR ABSORBING VARYING DEMAND Keeping in view the overall objective of impr oving the supply chain profit, the management should explore all possible alternatives of both demand side as well as supply side options.It is observed that demand for passenger traffic movement is not uniform throughout the year. In order to level the demand, the management of the airlines can undertake the following well-established measures: Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Formulate suitable marketing strategies to create new demand in the lean period. During peak periods, when the demand will exceed capacity, the management needs to offer seats to the customers who will pay the highest fares. Of course, other customers need to be motivated and informed that they would probably be charged less fare, if they undertake their trip at some other period.Shift some proportion of demand from peak period to lean period by offering the customers a reasonable rate of discount in the lean period. Of course, the cost/benefit analysis of this exercise has to be thoroughly examined beforehand. Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Journa l of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 75 Singh, Das Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Considering the lean periods of the airline in different routes and destinations, the top management needs to explore new destinations which may appear to be very attractive from the perspective of the customers.Accordingly the management can withdraw some of the flights from the existing underloaded routes and ply the same in the new routes. Alternatively the management needs to examine the passenger traffic data of different routes on monthly/quarterly basis. If it is found that during the same period, some destinations experience very high demand while others have low demand, the management may withdraw some of the flights from underutilized routes and introduce the same in the heavily loaded routes. Ã¢â‚¬ ¢In all cases, the detailed cost/benefit analysis of different alternatives is to be thoroughly examined. Then a particular course of a strategy or a combination of strategies m ay be adopted by the management. CONCLUSION The present study has attempted to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow of Lufthansa Airlines by employing the four forecasting methods, viz. moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model. The forecasted data suggested by Winter's model reflect the historical pattern in a better manner than three other forecasting methods.This gives a valuable insight to the managers regarding formulation of appropriate strategies in order to absorb varying nature of demand in different quarters. The same kind of study can be replicated in other airlines with suitable modifications. Of course, the present work have not taken into consideration important factors, for example, the prevailing slowdown in the global economy, perceived security threat in the wake of terrorist strikes at different parts of the globe etc.Moreover, the study has considered the total passenger traffic movement of Lufthan sa as a whole and has not paid attention to an individual market segment. This may not provide a clear picture to the management regarding increase or decrease in traffic flow in a particular segment. Future study should take care of this aspect. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ March 2011) 76 Forecasting the Passenger The implications of varying demand on supply side need to be thoroughly examined and accordingly suitable strategies should be adopted for improving the profit across the whole supply chain.REFERENCES Bicak, H. A. , Altinay, M. & Jenkins, H. 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IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, Facts & Figures Ã¢â‚¬â€œ 2008 Traffic Results, Montreal, Quebec, viewed 30 November,